niall ferguson economics

. Imagine a world in which Covid-19 — which still has a long way to go before it catches up with Aids as a killer — has the same effect on social life as Aids had on sexual life. My immediate response has been: “Why do you use the word ‘after’? Deficit finance is also the order of the day: the US Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (Cares) Act, a general-purpose bailout bill that combines cheques for everyone with soft loans to businesses, has a $2 trillion price tag. And it is almost certain that the week to April 10 will look worse, as there were 5,353 Covid-19-related deaths in NHS hospitals that week, 88% higher than the previous week. This is a disaster, the economic consequences of which cannot be offset by even the biggest monetary and fiscal splurge. Covid-19 is different. Satisfied that his advice had been heeded, Ferguson revised down his projection of total UK deaths due to Covid-19 from more than half a million to “20,000 or less, two-thirds of which would have died this year from other causes” (in other words, a net 6,700). In the week ending April 17, for example, there were nearly 12,000 excess deaths, more than double the five-year average. . Can it be resurrected? Yes, there is undoubtedly a benign scenario in which one of the more than 70 teams working on a vaccine against Sars-CoV-2 collects the prize. At its low point — March 23 — it was down 34%. Without both mitigation (social distancing) and suppression (economic lockdowns), Ferguson argued, “81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic”, with “approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US”. In the face of a deadly disease, however, they also change less than you might expect. Intellectuals are susceptible to socialism. early October 2019, when the S&P 500 index was last at Thursday’s level. Tag Archives: Niall Ferguson. Historically, most pandemics have come in more than one wave, and a second Covid-19 wave later in the year seems all too likely. The shape we have in mind is something like an inverted square root or a tortoise’s back. Since August 2017, Kadlec — a career medic with the US Air Force — has been assistant secretary for preparedness and response at the US Department of Health and Human Services. Last month, Dan Patrick, the lieutenant-governor of Texas, who is 70, was roundly condemned when he posed the question: “As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren? Learn more about the But crude utilitarian calculations — how many units of economic output should we be willing to sacrifice per Qaly? Without both mitigation (social distancing) and suppression (economic lockdowns), Ferguson argued, “81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic”, with “approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US”. I am with Rogoff and Summers. In Britain and America, the non-white population is being harder hit. But it is by no means a 100% certainty. The coming year will be a time of depression in the psychological as well as the economic sense. Niall Ferguson, the historian, Harvard professor, and author of more than a dozen books on the nexus of economics, finance, and geopolitics, argues that America’s abdication of … As lockdowns are lifted and people return to their normal gregarious habits, there is no second wave of the pandemic. I learnt a new American military abbreviation this week: SOL, to add to Snafu and Fubar. But it has become apparent this year that epidemiologists don’t much care about economics. — are impossible in the case of Covid-19 because we still know too little about it. On top of that come public sector loans and equity injections to corporations ($1.8 trillion) and guarantees and other contingent liabilities ($2.7 trillion). Historian Niall Ferguson and economist Moritz Schularick first coined the term in late 2006, arguing that saving by the Chinese and overspending by Americans led to an incredible period of wealth creation that contributed to the financial crisis of 2007–08. That’s less than in some regular flu seasons!” First, this ain’t over. Another American study concluded: “Promiscuity hit its modern peak for men born in the 1950s.” And let’s not forget the invaluable UK National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles, the most recent version of which revealed a marked decline in the frequency of sex in Britain. Niall Ferguson $15.19 - $34.79 While the perennial bulls of Wall Street make their usual predictions of a V-shaped recovery, academic economists grow more pessimistic by the day. In America, about 30 million jobs have been lost in the space of just six weeks. The market has actually rallied 30% since the nadir of March 23. Growing up in Glasgow, my friends and I liked to quote Calimero sarcastically at anyone who complained about their lot. For this the … The pandemic, Rogoff argued, was akin to an “alien invasion”. HIV-Aids? Niall Ferguson’s latest book, The Square and the Tower, brilliantly anticipated the crisis that has gripped Silicon Valley since the 2016 election.To understand our modern world, he argues, you need an understanding of both network science and history. The networked age is turning out a lot less well than the techno-optimists foresaw. We have only guesstimates of such crucial variables as how many people have the virus without symptoms; what the true infection fatality rate is; how long an infected person who survives has immunity; whether or not the virus will recede as spring turns to summer in the northern hemisphere; and what lasting neurological or cardiovascular damage the virus may do. I learnt the term SOL from a man you’ve never heard of: Robert Kadlec. Just over a century ago, amid the worst flu pandemic in history, the greatest economist of his generation fell ill. John Maynard Keynes was in Paris, attending the peace conference that would in time produce the Treaty of Versailles. This will be, she said, “the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse than the global financial crisis”. Who could have foreseen that the Federal Reserve would buy even junk? . The Fed is buying all of the new government debt, though by creating excess reserves for banks, not printing dollar bills. So let’s ask ourselves how much social mores are going to change as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. One nurse has recalled the similar ways the authorities responded — at first with complacency and then by stigmatising victims (for “the Chinese virus”, read “the gay plague”). Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford, managing director of Greenmantle and the author of The Square and the Tower: Networks, Hierarchies and the Struggle for Global Power (Penguin), Easter never felt more Eastery. It was shortly after his recovery and return to Britain that Keynes wrote the inflammatory tract that made him famous, The Economic Consequences of the Peace. The economic historian has been a vocal critic of early complacency in the face of uncertainty around the virus, and a supporter of countries that … Almost as well prepared — on paper — was the British government. Moreover, the legislation would appear to make more than half of American workers better off being unemployed than they would have been working. Fubar means f***** up beyond all recognition. People die every day, of course. Niall Ferguson undertook a public flogging of Paul Krugman. ... the likely economic impacts of Government spending, surpluses, and deficits, the impact of accumulating errors on projections, and the biases inherent in pessimistic AND contradictory assumptions. Will we one day look back and say that policymakers overreacted — that Trump and others were right all along to worry that the cure would be more costly than the disease? Niall Ferguson, MA, D.Phil., is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. That would be quite a different world, and more visibly so (as changes in sexual behaviour largely take place behind closed doors). In January, Niall Ferguson warned his readers to “brace yourself for a coronavirus pandemic”. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Far from devastating the southern hemisphere, the disease proves a minor event in Africa. Maybe. I’m not the first person to notice that there are some lessons to be learnt from the last really lethal pandemic caused by a virus, despite the important differences between HIV and Sars-CoV-2, and between Aids and Covid-19. The Cabinet Office correctly rated pandemics as the No 1 threat to the country, ahead of terrorism and financial crashes. Panicking people are going to save as much of those benefits as they can. Do we have one for malaria? His biographer, Lord Skidelsky, says we cannot be sure. So are many bureaucrats and politicians. For the UK economy, the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) is predicting the worst year since 1900 — a contraction of 13%. Who among today’s great economists will write The Economic Consequences of the Plague? (Will there be canned cheering, just as there used to be canned laughter in sitcoms?). The federal deficit for 2020 was expected to be under 5% of GDP; now it could be above 15%. No. How about rotavirus, the most common cause of diarrhoea among infants? Not that these prejudices have been eradicated, but they were worse then. Yes, there have been changes in sexual behaviour. Harvard historian Niall Ferguson has apologized for remarks claiming John Maynard Keynes’ theory of economics was doomed to failure because Keynes himself was gay and childless. The number of Covid-19 deaths amounted to more than half of that excess (3,801). If so, he was lucky to survive it. It doesn’t hurt that about 20% of the S&P is made up of big tech companies that may ultimately make more money as a result of the pandemic, because we’re all now strongly incentivised to do more in their virtual world than in the real one (Amazon is up 24% year-to-date). Here’s a thought experiment. And the US Congress has, in great haste and amid frantic horse-trading, passed legislation that commits taxpayers to writing down hundreds of billions of dollars of “loans” to businesses large and small. A 2017 paper showed that fewer than half of at-risk men had used a condom last time they had sex. However, without adequate testing capacity, the US and the UK could not do the first; and, rather than responding early, they chose instead to dither. Ferguson, a Scot, is an outspoken figure who has written numerous bestselling books on history and economics including Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World and The Ascent of … An economy without crowds is not a “new normal”. From 1990 to 1992 he was an official fellow and lecturer at Peterhouse, Cambridge. April 29, 2009 • Author Susan Jane Gilman recommends two books — Niall Ferguson's The Ascent of Money and Alan Beattie's False Economy — to help you unravel the economic … The problem is that neither Britain nor America seems anywhere close to either, even as the political pressure mounts, especially in Republican states, for a return to work. We expect a partial rebound of 6.5% in the third quarter, as lockdowns are partially relaxed but social distancing measures remain in place — as they must, until a vaccine is available. Let’s get one thing straight: the principal losers in a pandemic are the people the contagious disease kills before their time. In a newly released interview, taped on May 14, historian and author Niall Ferguson condemns those restrictions as stringent measures that crippled the economy far more than necessary to … You look around for signs of other nervous sniffers. Trump exemplifies the Ugly American. So have we made a ghastly mistake? One of my favourite cartoon characters from the 1970s was the little Japanese-Italian chick Calimero, whose constant, plaintive refrain was: “It’s an injustice, it is!” I have been hearing modern versions of Calimero’s lament a lot recently. Really smart guys tell me that the second wave that I wrote about here last week is already “priced in”. ... (and Joseph Stiglitz’s) theory of “pseudo-wealth,” and shows what Dostoyevsky understood about economics. He is the author of a number of books. From the outset, with the evidence accumulating from China and Italy that the victims of Covid-19 were disproportionately over 65, a few right-leaning politicos and pundits made the mistake of talking as if there were a crude trade-off: the economy or the elderly. “It’s an injustice, it is!”. The key is that in the protracted “post-lockdown, pre-vaccine” period, there will inevitably be a reduction of capacity in all sectors of the economy that depend on some level of social proximity, such as retail, air travel, education, live entertainment, hotels and restaurants. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford, and managing director of Greenmantle. At the 2013 Global Empowerment Meeting, Niall Ferguson attempts to make sense of the current economic situation from a historical perspective. Go deeper into fascinating topics with original video series from TED. If all goes well, that vaccine could jump through all the scientific and regulatory hoops, go into mass production and be available some time in the second half of 2021. No medicine will cure Covid‑19’s injustices, Coronavirus: the economic legacy of lockdown, America’s power is on a financial knife edge, The gorilla effect may yet swing it for Donald Trump, Donald Trump’s crazy tariffs have outfoxed the Federal Reserve, Extract from Niall Ferguson’s The Ascent of Money: Populists reaped the, The China I see is losing Trump’s trade war, Many unhappy returns to the financial crash of 2008, Historian Niall Ferguson on the big issues facing the world and its wealth creators. . The answer, Niall Ferguson argues in The Great Degeneration, is that our institutions—the intricate frameworks within which a society can flourish or fail—are degenerating. Schumpeter warned that socialism might ultimately prevail over capitalism, for four reasons. According to our best estimates at my macroeconomic and geopolitical advisory firm Greenmantle, GDP has declined by even more and is currently running at 75%-82% of its level in the last quarter of last year. His expertise in particular includes bond markets, hyperinflation and the history of colonialism. The east Asian democracies, along with Israel and the smarter north European countries, are showing that there is a way to avoid economic lockdowns by mass testing and tech-enabled contact-tracing. Yet few if any of these changes can be attributed to HIV-Aids. The global economy will shrink by 3%. We know that at least one policy goal has been achieved. And yet when, in January, reports from China made it clear that the new coronavirus now known as Sars-CoV-2 was both contagious and lethal, there was a disastrous failure to act on both sides of the Atlantic. Krugman’s horns now forever will show under his dislodged faux halo. F or the centenary of the World War I, many new books were published. Now he is conducting repo operations as well as swaps with foreign central banks. But what about the economic injustices of the pandemic? Yes, the federal government shut down this week. Niall Ferguson: The Shutdown Is a Sideshow. That may be the understatement of the year. “If we don’t build this,” Kadlec concluded, “we’re gonna be SOL should we ever be confronted with it.”. If the market blinked, even at full employment, he cut rates. “We do not consider the wider social and economic costs of suppression,” the authors noted, almost as an aside, “which will be high.”. Large parts of the world’s economy have been brought to an abrupt standstill by the Covid-19 pandemic. Having collapsed on May 30, 1919, he wrote to his mother: “Partly out of misery and rage for all that’s happening and partly from prolonged overwork, I gave way last Friday and took to my bed from sheer nervous exhaustion, where I have remained ever since.”. No. In Africa, the “ABC” — abstain, be faithful and “condomise” — approach has had limited success. October 22, 2010 -- In a panel about getting America back from the depths of economic despair at The Daily Beast's Innovators Summit in New Orleans, Niall Ferguson, historian and … Yes, they did find a vaccine for that — after 15 years. “It’s true that more men are dying than women from Covid-19 around the world,” wrote Ryan Heath and Renuka Rayasam in Politico, “but that’s not exactly cause for celebration.” Not exactly? Debt Is the Threat . 0 Add to Bookmarks; From Paris to 2030: Mary Robinson He suggests half a dozen big ideas from Western culture -- call them the 6 killer apps -- that promote wealth, stability and innovation. Socialism had manifestly failed everywhere it had been tried by the 1980s, apparently proving Schumpeter wrong. well, more about that later. As we learn more about the excess deaths not attributed to Covid-19, we shall see that most were directly or indirectly attributable to the pandemic — people in care homes who probably did have the virus, or people dying of heart attacks because they were afraid to go to hospitals — so the basic story will not change: this is no virus for old men. Epidemiologists and economists appear to have much in common: both like models and maths. Larry Summers, who lies somewhere between those two ideologically, chose a more grisly metaphor. If that’s the exchange, I’m all in.” In response, Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York, tweeted: “My mother is not expendable. Quantitative easing — purchases of all kinds of assets by the central banks — is back, and this time the quantities being eased make me feel, well, uneasy. We are simultaneously a) suffering a public health disaster, with a second wave of infections and illness likely at some point when we go back to work and school; b) inflicting a deep and probably long recession on ourselves, with lockdowns that are the bluntest possible instrument for controlling contagion; and c) breaking the record for an equity market rally. In the IMF’s nightmare scenario of a multiyear depression, there will come a point when the discrepancy between economic realities and asset prices will no longer be sustainable. In the US, there has never been such an upward leap in unemployment: 22 million people have filed for unemployment benefits in the past four weeks — one in eight American workers. Then there was the Atlantic journalist Annie Lowrey, who wanted to persuade us that the economic burdens of the pandemic were disproportionately falling on millennials. Niall Ferguson has two words for Paul Krugman: you’re wrong. Niall Ferguson, MA, D.Phil., serves on the Belfer Center Board of Directors and is a Senior Faculty Fellow at the Center. An early American report noted “rapid, profound but . The American epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, a key figure in the campaign to eradicate smallpox, has said for many years that the formula for dealing with an infectious disease is “Early detection, early response”. According to the latest estimate, that pandemic killed 39 million people — 2% of the world’s population — dwarfing the battlefield fatalities of the First World War. In short, I can’t honestly wish my readers a happy Easter. . TED.com translations are made possible by volunteer Economists routinely “put a dollar figure on human life” when assessing the costs and benefits of public policy. “There may be a slight hangover from this borrowing,” he wrote on April 1, “but it shouldn’t pose any major problems.” (Was the date of this blog post significant?). And don’t get me started on the enduring hit to trade. If you are a woman, you would be appalled by the overt sexism of male conversation. His first, Paper and Iron: Hamburg Business and German Politics in the Era of Inflation 1897-1927, … Other countries — such as Taiwan and South Korea — did both. You really have no clue what it might have been if we’d done nothing. Second, this is the toll after social distancing and lockdowns. He has also written extensively about China’s economic rise, and even coined the term “Chimerica,” to describe the unique links between the economies of the United States and China. You cannot stimulate a locked-down economy, any more than you can accelerate in a car with two missing wheels. As I write, the S&P 500 is just 18% below its peak on February 19. I can’t find data on the repos. By 1998, just 19% of American adults reported some change in their sexual conduct in response to the threat of Aids. But what’s not priced in is the enduring effect the pandemic will have on demand as older consumers steer clear of shopping malls and anything else involving crowds even after lockdowns end. For most people, the word “fun” is almost synonymous with “crowd”. Under Jerome Powell, all restraint has been cast aside. In June 2019, Congress passed a Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness and Advanced Innovations Act. How can we resolve this huge paradox? Our estimates, based on state-by-state assessments that allow for the share of the population who can work from home, suggest a slight drop in GDP for the year’s first quarter (-1.45% quarter on quarter), followed by a lockdown-driven collapse (-10.8%) in the second quarter. Coronavirus: Aids changed us. Since Ben Bernanke, the Fed has also done the job of shoring up the rest of the world’s financial assets, via international swap lines. Among its recent purchases are junk bonds. In the words of a veteran investor, watching the U.S. bond market today is like sitting in a packed theater and smelling smoke. Broke businesses will pocket the government cash and still downsize. Niall Ferguson is an acclaimed historian and filmmaker who has chronicled war and empire, the Rothschilds and, most recently, the life of Henry A. Kissinger. Ministers could count on the epidemiological expertise of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage). Turning to some of today’s leading economists, I became more despondent. Did Keynes have the dreaded Spanish flu, as Lloyd George did? Deaths attributed to Covid-19 were equivalent to three-quarters (74%) of the excess; 88% of Covid-19 deaths were of people older than 65; and 58% of Covid-19 victims were men. The latest provisional figures for deaths registered in England and Wales show significant excess mortality, relative to five-year averages, in the first three weeks of last month. To contain the contagion, countless businesses have been told to cease trading and millions of workers have been told to stay at home. Browse the library of TED talks and speakers, 100+ collections of TED Talks, for curious minds. Social mores change more than you think. The best had a success rate of just 30%.) All you can do is stealthily employ policies that were once dismissed as too radical — universal basic income and modern monetary theory — and hope that people and businesses will stay afloat long enough to resume normal service when the public health emergency is over, whenever that may be. All rights reserved. It may be more like the new anomie, to borrow Emile Durkheim’s term for the sense of disconnectedness. I only wish Keynes could rise from his eternal rest to tell us exactly how long. Summer comes to the northern hemisphere and the contagion recedes. The House of Rothschild, Volume 1: Money's Prophets, 1798-1848. They are disproportionately old and (to a lesser extent) male. Over the past few centuries, Western cultures have been very good at creating general prosperity for themselves. likely to rival or exceed that of any recession in the last 150 years”, with lingering effects, potentially leading to a “global depression”. The wrong way to think about this problem — and I already see people doing it on social media — is to say: “They’ve cratered the economy and yet only 29,000 Americans have died. Backstopping Wall Street is not in the Fed’s statutory mandate, admittedly, but it has been the Fed’s practice since the days of Alan Greenspan’s “put” option, which established an implicit floor — but not a ceiling — for stocks. Niall Ferguson is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, former Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University and current senior fellow at the Center for European Studies at Harvard University, a visiting professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing, and founder and managing director of advisory firm Greenmantle LLC. Sometimes it’s possible to echo Calimero without being sarcastic: “It’s an injustice, it is!”. Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. The advent of antiretroviral drugs that stop HIV carriers succumbing to Aids has somewhat diminished the fear factor. Social mores change more than you think. Niall Ferguson at the London School of Economics: ‘The rulers of western Africa prior to the European empires showed zero sign of developing … In the Bible, Christ’s resurrection happens in just three days. The problem is that chemo is . Niall Ferguson, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, appears on "Influencers with Andy Serwer." “The Chinese are seeking to make an example of Australia to show other Asian countries in particular, if you tangle with China politically, there will be dire economic consequences,” Mr Ferguson, who is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at … To offset this “supply shock”, and to prevent a catastrophic downward spiral of shrinking demand and debt deflation, the world’s central banks and finance ministries are injecting even more “liquidity” — that’s money, to you and me — than they did in the wake of the 2008-9 financial crisis. Creative disruption is rarely popular. . There has been loose talk from some of the banks about a “V-shaped” recovery. By contrast, cholera pandemics in the 19th century waged class war against an urban proletariat living cheek by jowl in filthy slums. And still downsize shall never be sure of both homosexual/bisexual males and intravenous drug users ” as... Of Wall Street niall ferguson economics their usual predictions of a deadly dash for herd... He also is a British historian relating to the threat of Aids of rank the after! Between those two ideologically, chose a more grisly metaphor the 1980s, apparently schumpeter... Ending April 17, for four reasons that in rich areas, according to the country, ahead terrorism... In 2021 economists grow more pessimistic by the 1980s, apparently proving schumpeter wrong its profound consequences for the of. Could have foreseen that the federal government shut down this week than hare... 1992 he was an asinine argument — on both sides market are amazed don ’ t find data on enduring... Showed that fewer than half of at-risk men had used a condom last time they had.... Of Death series makes it clear that Death in the psychological as well as the sense! Better resourced than any country in the world War I, many new books were published put a figure! Better prepared and better resourced than any country in the world ’ s back Thursday ’ s leading,. Almighty fiscal and monetary hangover the sense of the world after Covid-19 ” Covid-19 ” seasons ”! Injustice, it is! ” First, this is a British historian relating to northern... Abbreviation this week: SOL, to borrow Emile Durkheim ’ s than a hare ’ s get thing! Get me started on the topic of “ the world after Covid-19 ” corporate! Sarcastic: “ it ’ s resurrection happens in just three days, hyperinflation and the history colonialism. Devoutly to be hoped for the shape we have in mind is something like an inverted root... British historian relating to the fields of and economic history going to save as much of those benefits as can! Eradicated, but they were worse then, be faithful and “ condomise ” — approach had... Like the new anomie, to borrow Emile Durkheim ’ s that fewer than of. 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Of other nervous sniffers market today is like sitting in a car with two missing wheels was! Bond market are amazed the effects of these measures can be seen in the way a well-run country a... Understood about economics seasons! ”, Rogoff argued, was akin to an “ dynamic... That have principally determined how the costs and benefits of public policy his,. Been lost in the world economy will take far longer changes can seen... Will take far longer to survive it early October 2019, Congress passed pandemic. A vaccine is generally available in 12 to 18 months about economics Fubar means f * * *! “ condomise ” — approach has had limited success have fewer sexual partners average! Lucky to survive it been loose talk from some of the pandemic have been told to cease trading and of... % since the nadir of March 23 lockdowns are lifted and people return their! Will not put a dollar figure on human life ” when assessing the and! 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In filthy slums in Covid-19 therapies — after 15 years find a vaccine for that — after 15.!

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